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Current Issue [Vol. 04, No. 06] [June 2018]

Paper Title :: An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Exchange Reserves and Money Supply
Author Name :: Bin Zheng || Fang Chen
Country :: China
Page Number :: 01-05
Based on the fact that China's current money supply and foreign exchange reserves are in a state of extraordinary growth, based on theoretical analysis, empirical analysis of foreign exchange reserves and money supply data from April 2008 to April 2018 was carried out by establishing a VAR model. The results show that there are two-way Granger reasons for foreign exchange reserves and money supply, and there is a long-term equilibrium relationship. Foreign exchange reserves and money supply have lagging effects on each other for two to three periods, and then make recommendations based on China's current foreign exchange reserves and monetary policy. To reasonably control the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves and money supply, and promote the stable operation of the macro economy.
Keywords:Money Supply, Foreign Exchange Reserve, VAR Model
[1]. Ding Wenli. Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test of the Relationship between China's Balance of Payments and Money Supply [J]. Journal of Yunnan Institute of Finance and Economics, 2000(04):17-21.
[2]. Wei Yijun. Empirical analysis of the impact of changes in foreign exchange reserves on money supply and policy recommendations[J].Southern Economy,2005(05):72-74.
[3]. Zhao Dongliang. The relationship between China's foreign exchange reserves and the growth of money supply [D]. Henan University, 2011.
[4]. Yu Yi. The relationship between money supply, foreign exchange reserves and inflation [D]. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2012.
[5]. Zhao Dongliang. The relationship between China's foreign exchange reserves and the growth of money supply [D]. Henan University, 2011.

Paper Title :: Project Mode Based on Organic Transformation of Abandoned Mushroom Culture Medium
Author Name :: Fang Chen || Zihao Liu
Country :: China
Page Number :: 06-11
In order to fulfill resource recycle, the wasted mushroom medium is transformed into an utilizable agricultural product for secondary use. By contrasting the usages of wasted mushroom mediums that have been known on the market and analyzing the elementary composition, the product is orientated as fertilizer. Specific to the products’ nutrient contents, the product’s marketing range is determined as flower grower. Through optimization of project mode and R&D of advanced transforming techniques, higher utilization of agricultural resources is promoted.
Keywordsabandoned mushroom medium secondary use project model
[1]. ZHAO Xiaoli, CHEN Zhiyi, LIU Xueming. Research progress of high efficient utilization of bacillary dysentery[J]. Chinese edible fungus. 2012(02)
[2]. Li Jiayou. Progress in the comprehensive development and utilization of bacillary dysentery[J]. Zhejiang Edible Fungi, 2009(03)
[3]. Wang Huanqi, Gao Qixuan, Lei Yan,. Research progress of microbial residue as an organic matrix in vegetable production [J]. Hunan China Agricultural Sciences. 2013 (15)
[4]. Hou Lijuan, Yao Fangjie, Gao Wei, Chen Yujia. Overview of Research on the Reuse of Edible Fungi Strain[J]. Chinese Edible Fungi. 2008(03)
[5]. Zhou Yi, Sheng Yuyi, Peng Xiawei, Li Baoju. Progress in the comprehensive utilization of bacillary dysentery[J]. Biotechnology. 2011(02)

Paper Title :: The Research on the Upgrading of Consumption Structure in China
Author Name :: Yunlu Wang || Li Tan
Country :: China
Page Number :: 12-16
Abstract:EViews software is used to check analysis the impact of the consumer's income level, the level of social productivity development and the level of social security on the consumption structure. It explores the positive significance of upgrading consumption structure to drive economic growth, promote cultural industry, improve industrial science and technology, and penetrate into emerging industries.
Keywords: Upgrading of consumption structure; economic growth; Industrial upgrading; EViews
[1]. 欧阳谦.消费社会与符号拜教物[J].中国人民大学学报 2015,06
[2]. 姜淼,何理.中国城镇居民消费结构变动研究[A].经济与管理研究 2013,06
[3]. 晁乐红.论消费结构升级的伦理意义[A].台州学院学报 2011,10
[4]. 高翔.论优化消费结构对我国产业升级的意义[J].经济论坛

Paper Title :: Factors Influencing Sustainability of Small Scale Fish Farming Projects in Kenya: The Case of South Imenti Sub-County, Meru County
Author Name :: Gatonye Margaret W || Prof Christopher Gakuu
Country :: Kenya
Page Number :: 17-32
The study sought to examine the factors influencing sustainability of small scale fish farming projects. Specifically, it sought to determine how cost of inputs, provision of extension services, accessibility to market and use of technology influence sustainability of small scale fish farming projects. It was guided by Diffusion of Innovation Theory (DOI) and Theory of Production. Mixed Method Research Design, was used targeting small-scale fish farmers in South Imenti Sub-county, Meru County. To collect both qualitative and quantitative data a target of 200 individual, group and other projectswas adopted. Questionnaire, interview schedules and focus groups were used as data collecting instruments. Of 150 questionnaires distributed 109 were filled and returned. Descriptive statistics (Mean, standard deviation, frequencies, and percentages) and inferential statistics (correlation) were adopted to measure relationships and give meanings. The study established that small scale fish farming projects are greatly influenced by provision of extension services (r = 0.521) indicating that an improvement of the services to the farmers results to higher and better yields which in turn result to sustainability. Access to market (r = 0.411) also influenced sustainability, this indicates accessing broader markets would consequently make fish farming sustainable. Use of technology (r = 0.301), proved to have an influence on sustainability implying that adoption and use of technology significantly influences the production positively hence making the projects sustainable. Lastly, cost of inputs (r = 0.013), the low value can be explained as the variable having dual impact on the respondents, while to some farmers high cost means less production there were others that high cost meant good quality hence high production.
Keywords: Cost of Inputs, Market Access, Provision of Extension Services, Use of Technology and Sustainabilityof Small Scale Fish Farming Projects.
[1]. FAO. (2012). The state of World Fisheries and Aquaculture . FAO.
[2]. FAO. (2014). The State of World Fisheries and aquaculture . Rome: FAO
[3]. HLPE. (2014). Sustainable fisheries and aquaculture for food security and nutrition. A report by the High Level of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security . Rome .
[4]. FAO. (2004). Aquaculture Extension Services: FAO Fisheries Circular No. 1002. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations .
[5]. Kagiri, E. W. (2016). An Evaluation of Factors Affecting Sustainability of Fish farming projects in public secondary schools in Kiambu County. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications.

Paper Title :: ANN-ABC Model to Estimate the Operating Frequency of Annular Ring Patch Antenna
Author Name :: Ahmet Kayabasi || Ali Akdagli || Yalcin Isik
Country :: Turkey
Page Number :: 33-38
Annular ring patch antennas (ARPAs) have important features, such as easy adjustment of the resonance modes by changing the ratio of the outer radius to the inner radius. An application of artificial neural network (ANN) model trained by artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is presented to estimate the operating frequency of ARPAs that operate at ultrahigh frequency band in this work. For this study, the operating frequencies of 100 ARPAs having different electrical and physical parameters covering band ranges of GSM, LTE, WLAN and WiMAX applications are firstly simulated with the help of a 3D full-wave simulator tool. The ANN-ABC model is constructed with 100 simulation data and the results of simulation are used for training and testing processes of the model. The 80 simulated ARPAs are utilized for training and the remaining 20 ARPAs are used for testing. The proposed ANN-ABC model is validated via measurement data published earlier in the literature. The mean absolute errors (MAEs) regarding the estimated operating frequency for training, testing and validating are calculated as 0.069, 0.075and 0.081, respectively. The results obtained with the ANN-ABC model in the training, testing and validating processes are in harmony with the simulation and measurement results and these results show that the proposed model can be successfully used to estimate the operating frequencies of ARPAs.
Keywords: Annular ring patch antenna, operating frequency, artificial neural network, artificial bee colony
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[5] Z. Fan, andK.F. Lee, Hankel transform domain analysis of dual-frequency stacked circular-disk and annular-ring microstrip antennas, IEEE Transactions on Antennas and Propagations, 29, 1991, 867 – 870.

Paper Title :: Empirical Analysis of GARCH Effect of Shanghai Copper 1902 Futures
Author Name :: Wei Wu || Fang Chen
Country :: China
Page Number :: 39-45
Micro financial data often has abrupt fluctuations in the stock market and futures markets. This is often referred to as a clustering phenomenon or a volatility cluster in financial time series. The GARCH model was originally used to analyze this volatile clustering phenomenon. This paper Based on the use of financial metrology analysis method to select 620 closing price data of Shanghai Copper 1902 Futures from November 26, 2015 to June 12, 2018, using GARCH model to estimate the yield and variance of each futures market in China's futures market. Of the yield, the EGARCH model is the best model for the fitting effect.
Keywords: Shanghai copper 1902 futures; yield; GARCH model.
[1]. Xiao Nan. Modeling and Analysis of the Return Rate of Shanghai Copper Futures Market by ARMA-GARCH Model [J]. Operations Research and Management,2006,15(5):68-71.
[2]. Li Min, Chen Shengke. Eviews statistical analysis and application [M]. Beijing: Publishing House of Electronics Industry, 2006.
[3]. Luo Wanchun, Liu Rui. Analysis of China's Food Price Fluctuation: Based on ARCH Model[J]. China Rural Economy, 2010, (4): 30-47.
[4]. Hou Liqiang, Yang Shanlin, Wang Xiaojia, et al. Stock index volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index - forecast based on fuzzy FEGARCH model and different distribution hypotheses[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, 2015, 23(6): 32-40.
[5]. Li Yajing, Zhu Hongquan, Peng Yuwei. Prediction of Volatility in Chinese Stock Market Based on GARCH Models[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2003 (11).

Paper Title :: A study on the Weekly Calendar Effect of Chinese Stock Market – Taking Guizhou Maotai as an Example
Author Name :: Guang WU || Hong-guo SUN
Country :: China
Page Number :: 46-52
Based on the basic theory of AR model, a reasonable AR model was established. The above guizhoumaotai index was taken as an example to conduct fitting prediction and empirical analysis of stock prices. First, using Eviews software, unit root test is conducted on the original data sequence to determine whether the original data sequence is stable. If it is not stable, the original sequence needs to be treated with weekly rate of return differential. Secondly, the identified AR model is estimated by using the model form of recognition sequence of autocorrelation graph and partial autocorrelation graph, including the coefficient of estimation model and the order of discriminant model. Finally, the model is used to predict the weekly closing price of guizhoumaotai index with high precision, so as to predict the weekly calendar effect of the stock market. The results show that the fitting effect is good, indicating that the established AR model has certain accuracy. Conclusion the AR model is more suitable for short-term data fitting. At the same time, combined with Eviews software, the calculation process can become simple and accurate. Study changes in the short-term in our weekly calendar effect on stock prices in the future trend and formulate investment strategies have practical significance, can provide reliable information service for investors and policy makers and decision.
Keywords: AR model; Week calendar effect; The time series
[1]. Li-chengFeng. The weekly effect of China's stock market[J]. Economic research.2000.11,50-56.
[2]. Cross F. The behavior of stock prices on Fridays and Mondays[J].Financial Analysis Journal,1973,29, 67-69.
[3]. French K.Stock returns and the weekend effects[J].Journal of Financial Economics,1980,8, 579-596.
[4]. Gibbons,M.R. Day of the week effects and asset returns.Journal of Bussiness.1981,(54), 579-596.
[5]. Keim D.B.A further investigation of the weekend effects in stock returns[J]. Journal of Finance.1984,13,814-819.

Paper Title :: An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Money Supply, Economic Growth and Inflation
Author Name :: ZENG Li || SUN Hong-guo
Country :: China
Page Number :: 53-61
Inflation will have a great negative impact on the macro economy and the life of the residents in China.Since entering the 21st century, there has been a serious financial crisis and subprime crisis in the world. Therefore, inflation, money supply and economic growth have been widely concerned by the economists. This paper uses the method of financial time series analysis to establish a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Empirical analysis shows that the increase of money supply will increase inflation and stimulate economic growth, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
Keywords: Inflation, Economic Growth, Money Supply, VAR Model
[1] WANG Kai, PANGZhen. Monetary supply, inflation uncertainty and economic growth——Also on the applicability of the Friedman hypothesis in China [J].Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University,2008(07):37-42.
[2] FANGFang. Empirical study on the relationship between money supply, economic growth and inflation[J].Commercial Age,2012(13):50-51.
[3] ZHANGXu. An Empirical Study of Broad Money Supply in China——Based on VAR Model Analysis[J].Modern Business Industry,2009,21(20):150-151.
[4] LIU Lin, QIYunhui. Money Supply, Inflation and China's Economic Growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on Cointegration [J]. Statistical Research, 2005 (03):14-19.
[5] YUAN Chunxi. Current inflation causes and policy suggestions in China [J].Coastal Enterprises and Science and Technology,2008(07):4-7.

Paper Title :: Empirical analysis of palm oil futures price volatility based on EGARCH model
Author Name :: Ya-fei LI || Hong-guo HONG
Country :: China
Page Number :: 62-67
In this paper, the research object is the palm oil futures daily closing price, time: 2012-1-4 to 2012-1-4, the yield of palm oil futures daily volatility clustering, establish a GARCH model and EGARCH model, results show that the EGARCH model is better than GARCH model reflects the yield of palm oil futures volatility clustering, different response to the positive impact and negative impact.
Keywords: palm oil, the futures price, the yield, EGARCH
[1]. PANG Z Y, LIU L. Can agricultural product price fluctuation be stabilized by future market: emprircal study based on discrete wavelet transform and garch model[J].Financial research 2013,No.11:126-139
[2]. LIU S,TANG T F. Research on Spillover Effect and Information Transmission within Oil Futures Markets at Home and Abroad[J].Journal of Southern Agriculture University 2014 Vol.13:72-82
[3]. WANG H,SONG F,CAO F Y,CHEN W J,ZHAO S L, Analysis of Nutrition and Functional Composition in Palm Oil[J].CHINESE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL AGRICULTURE 2014,Vol.34,No.6:71-74
[4]. LIU R J, WANG C L .Dynamic relationship analysis between palm oil supply shocks and domestic vegetable oil prices volatility [J]. Journal of Southern Agriculture 2017,Vol.48, No. 4:741-747
[5]. ZHOU L. Research on Cross - market Arbitrage Based on Extreme Fluctuation [J]. Journal of Shandong Technology and Business University 2018, Vol.32, No.2:78-86

Paper Title :: Research on Volatility of Silver Futures Market Based on GARCH Model
Author Name :: Han-qiu DAI || Hong-guo SUN
Country :: China
Page Number :: 68-73
Abstract:Taking the daily closing data of Shanghai and Silver Banks from May 27, 2014 to June 11, 2018 as samples, the GARCH model was used to conduct an empirical analysis to check the price fluctuations and leverage effect during this period of time. The results show that there is a leverage effect and volatility clustering characteristics in the silver futures market.
Keywords: Silver, GARCH model, Eviews, Leverage effect
[1]. Wang Zhaocai. Empirical Analysis of the Volatility of Shanghai Futures Market [J].Trade in Economy, 2013 (6): 64-65.
[2]. Li Gang. Research on the prediction of volatility of carbon futures based on GARCH cluster model [J]. China Price, 2015 (11): 60-63.
[3]. ZHAO Weixiong, CUI Hairong, HE Jianmin. Evaluation of the prediction effect of the volatility of the GARCH model——A case study of Shanghai Copper Futures [J]. Journal of Xidian University (Social Sciences), 2010, 20 (04): 27-32.
[4]. Chen Xiaodong. A comparative study on predictive models of high-frequency volatility for China's metal futures market [J]. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, 2016, 30 (03): 114-120.
[5]. Xu Wei, Huang Yanlong. Research on the measurement of GARCH model and VaR [J]. Journal of Quantitative Economics and Technology, 2008(01):120-132.

Paper Title :: Analysis of Investment Value of Blockchain Concept Stock Based on Factor Analysis
Author Name :: Xin-jie Fu || Gui-ping Tang || Wen-hui Li
Country :: China
Page Number :: 74-81
This article empirically analyzes the financial indicators of 35 stocks in the blockchain concept block by using SPSS software and factor analysis. Established a comprehensive evaluation system for listed companies in the blockchain sector. Through comparison of the composite score with the price-earnings ratio, it can be concluded that: Win-Win, Flying Integrity, Precise Information, Gaosheng Holdings, Xinchen Technology, and Golden Stocks are the stocks underestimated by the stock market. Provincial Guang Group, Alto Electronics, Guangzhou Express, Shenzhen Science and Technology, Tianguang Zhongmao, Hailian Jinhui, Ai Kang Technology, and Yujiu Games have overestimated stocks for the market. Based on this, it can provide investors with reference for investment decisions.
Keywords: Blockchain, Factor Analysis, Investment Value, Financial Scoring System.
[1]. LichunFu, Qinghua Ma.(2018).Cold thinking of blockchain heat[J]. China Economic Weekly, (04).
[2]. Liyong Yan.(2018).The block chain concept stock that was simmered [J]. Talents Magazine, (Z1): 74-75.
[3]. Guangqi Ma, Jing Chen. (2017). Analysis of Investment Value of Extractive Industry Stocks Based on Factor Analysis [J].Communication of Finance and Accounting,(23):38-41.
[4]. Lanlan Rao, Yuping Zheng. (2016). An analysis of the investment value of the second-concept stocks based on factor analysis [J].China Market, (38):86-89.
[5]. Xia Yang, Yayun Wang. (2015). Analysis of the value of stock investment of China's listed commercial banks based on factor analysis [J]. Special Zone Economy, (12):67-69.

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